Bangkok (Thailand), 12 December 2024 – Opium cultivation in Myanmar remains at high levels after three years of growth, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) reported in its latest opium survey for Southeast Asia.
The report, titled “Myanmar Opium Survey 2024: Cultivation, Production and Implications”, analyses data collected in Myanmar during the third growing season since the military takeover. Showing a moderate decrease of 4 per cent from 47,100 to 45,200 hectares and a similar decrease in yield per hectare, the findings point to an initial stabilization of cultivation at the current high levels, cementing Myanmar’s status as the world’s leading source of opium.
However, the uneven distribution of the decrease, with some parts of the country showing significant increases, as well as uncertainties regarding the impact of the continued drug ban in Afghanistan on global demand for opium and heroin, suggest that Myanmar’s opium economy is at a crossroads.
“The amount of opium produced in Myanmar remains close to the highest levels we have seen since we first measured it more than 20 years ago,” UNODC Regional Representative Masood Karimipour said. “As conflict dynamics in the country remain intense and the global supply chains adjust to the ban in Afghanistan, we see significant risk of a further expansion over the coming years.”
The report highlights regional variations in opium poppy cultivation within Myanmar. Shan State continues to be the most significant poppy-producing area, accounting for 88 per cent of the country’s total. While the area under opium poppy cultivation slightly decreased in North and South Shan, East Shan, which borders Lao PDR and Thailand, showed a 10 per cent increase. Cultivation in Kachin decreased by 10 per cent, whereas Chin State, where most opium poppy cultivation is concentrated near the border with India, saw the most significant increase of 18 per cent. Kayah State, where cultivation is generally lower compared to other parts of the country, saw an 8 per cent increase in 2024.
Opium prices likely were a decisive factor, with farmgate prices for dry opium declining by 8 per cent to US$304/kg, and regional heroin prices indicating signs of initial market saturation following three years of increased production. However, a global shortage of opiates resulting from decreased production in Afghanistan would likely result in upwards pressure on the prices paid to farmers in Myanmar, incentivizing more people to consider opium cultivation.
The lack of labour resulting from increased numbers of people leaving the country and recruitment by both the Myanmar military and various armed groups, as well as limitations on farmers’ ability to travel to remote fields amidst intensifying conflict, were another factor.
UNODC Representative Karimipour added: “While opium cultivation in the Golden Triangle remains high, synthetic drug production has grown steadily and the illicit economy around online casinos and scam centres is expanding rapidly. Decisive action is needed to avoid the situation getting out of hand.”
The report also provides an in-depth analysis of the socioeconomic factors driving opium poppy cultivation in Myanmar, confirming the close interdependency between opium cultivation and broader socioeconomic development. In particular, poppy-growing villages and households are characterized by challenging economic conditions, lack of public services, high levels of debt and higher degrees of instability.
“Farmers who grow opium in Myanmar do not get rich, but are simply trying to make a living and meet their families’ basic needs amidst challenging circumstances,” commented Yatta Dakowah, UNODC Country Manager for Myanmar. “We still have an opportunity to decisively shift the economic outlook of these communities by supporting long-term and sustainable income-generating opportunities, preventing more people from moving to poppy cultivation. However, time is running out quickly.”
