On 6th of November 2024, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) published the first volume of the Afghanistan Drug Insights describing the most recent trends in opium poppy cultivation in the country.
Entering its second year of being enforced, the opium ban continues to hold. In 2024, the area under cultivation was 19% more than in 2023 accounting for 12,800 ha. The slight increase in cultivation came with a geographical shift. The South-western provinces of the country have long been the center of cultivation up to and including 2023. In 2024, this changed and now 59% of all cultivation took place in the North-east, particularly in Badakhshan.
The rapid and currently sustained decline in poppy cultivation and opium production has important and wide-ranging implications in and around Afghanistan, as well as the opiate markets long supplied from this country. Questions remain as to how long Afghanistan will cope with the continued reduction in opiate income and how an opiate market will react to a reduced supply.
Looking at the economic dimension, dry opium prices have stabilized slightly in the first half of 2024 to around $730 per kg in June 2024 – several times higher than the long-running pre-ban average price of $100 per kilogram. This may trigger a resumption in poppy cultivation, especially in places outside of traditional cultivation centers, including neighboring countries.
In Afghanistan, farmers who lack sustainable alternatives face a more precarious financial and economic situation and need alternative economic opportunities to become resilient against picking up poppy cultivation in the future.
The new report is available now: https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghanistan_Drug_Insights_V1.pdf
